Author Archives: GREG OLIVER

About GREG OLIVER

About GREG OLIVER ___________ Greg Oliver have been assisting mature and senior clients for 23 years on how to protect their assets and invest wisely. In fact, he has assisted over 5,212 + retirees to safely invest over 174.4 + million dollars in secure ( SAFE ) investment plans. GREG OLIVER, Understands Effective Financial Planning and Estate Planning Greg Oliver, has been helping people take control of their future with good financial life planning since 1989. He is President and a CEO of OLIVER Financial Services, USA. Greg provides personal financial planning and investment review services for clients in the Continental United States. His primary area of practice is in serving clients either getting ready for retirement or those retired. Greg has special expertise in the financial planning problems of the aging. Prior to entering the financial planning profession in 1989, Greg served 10 years in the United States Marine Corps. Greg and his wife Ann live in Cincinnati. When not working at building OLIVER Financial Services, USA, he enjoys working with charities and supports The Society of Saint Vincent de Paul in helping others in need. CALL Today for a FREE Consultation. No cost / obligation. 513 - 860 – 7934 e-mail ofs@one.net

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

GREG OLIVER UPDATE :
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

QUOTE OF THE QUARTER

“I’m an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else.”

– Winston Churchill

QUARTERLY TIP

Study the I.R.S. hobby loss rules if you want to write off self-employment losses. You may regard your venture as a business activity or a trade, but the I.R.S. may deem it a pastime you simply take part in for personal pleasure.

A review of Q1 2017
THE QUARTER IN BRIEF
The opening quarter of 2017 was a historic one for Wall Street as the Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 20,000 for the first time. Equities rallied through January and February, then lost momentum in March; even so, the S&P 500 had gained 5.53% YTD when the quarter ended. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate for only the third time in a decade, in response to strengthening inflation pressure and other signals of economic acceleration. Consumer confidence remained high. Commodities had a decidedly mixed quarter. New home sales improved, while existing home sales tapered off. The U.K. took another step toward its Brexit; the U.S. left the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Wall Street kept its hopes up for tax reform and lighter business and banking industry regulation.1,2

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
As the stock market climbed, so did the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index. By March, it had reached an astonishingly high mark of 125.6. The University of Michigan’s household sentiment index declined from 98.5 to 96.9 across the quarter, but it remained well above its historical average of 86.0.3,4

Factory and service sectors expanded nicely during Q1, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The Arizona-based organization’s manufacturing purchasing manager index was at 56.0 in January, 57.7 in February, and 57.2 in March. Its service sector PMI (the March number was not available at this writing) came in at 56.5 in January and 57.6 in February. All these numbers indicate solid growth.5,6

One other sign of economic growth, of course, is inflation. In Q1, it became more palpable. By February, the Consumer Price Index had risen 2.7% in a year (the annualized advance on the core CPI was 2.2%). Producer prices were up as well. The headline PPI showed a 2.2% yearly advance in February, with core prices gaining 1.5% over 12 months.3

Currently available data shows tepid consumer spending at the beginning of 2017. Personal spending was up just 0.2% in the opening month of the year and only 0.1% in February. Consumer incomes, however, rose 0.5% in January, then 0.4% in February. Households sent headline retail sales 0.6% higher in January, but only 0.1% a month later. There were gains in durable goods orders in both January (2.3%) and February (1.7%).3,7

January’s Department of Labor jobs report showed the headline jobless rate at 4.8% and the U-6 rate measuring underemployment at 9.4%; a month later, those unemployment rates were respectively lower at 4.7% and 9.2%. Hiring was strong in both January and February, with 238,000 net new jobs added to payrolls in the first month and 235,000 net new jobs added in the second.8

All this data encouraged the Federal Reserve to make its first interest rate move of the year. On March 15, it announced a widely expected, quarter-point hike, taking the federal funds rate to a target range of 0.75-1.00%. As Fed chair Janet Yellen told the media after the policy announcement, “The simple message is, the economy is doing well.” Investors who assumed the hike was coming scrutinized the Fed’s dot-plot forecast for any 2017 changes; they did not find any. Two incremental rate increases are still projected before the year ends.9

Elsewhere in Washington, President Donald Trump signed an executive order commissioning a review of the Dodd-Frank Act. As Q1 ended, hearings on portions of Dodd-Frank were set to start in early April, with a chance of reform legislation being introduced in Congress during Q2.10

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
In late March, the United Kingdom formally triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty – the beginning of the Brexit, if you will. It now has until April 2019 to negotiate the terms of its departure from the European Union. Will it retain single market access after the Brexit, so that its citizens can keep working and living in other E.U. countries without visas? Or will it make a “hard” Brexit, a divorce dictated by court decisions and/or World Trade Organization rules that would cause its people to lose E.U. citizenship rights? In April, the negotiations begin. The euro area jobless rate stood at 9.5% as of February, a low unseen since May 2009. Eurostat estimated an inflation rate of 1.5% for the euro area for March, an 0.5% decline from February.11,12

As the United States left the Trans-Pacific Partnership during the quarter, Asia-Pacific nations seeking a regional trade pact turned to Plan B – Plan B being the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. This free trade agreement, now in negotiation, would bring China, Japan, and India into an economic accord with 13 other Asia-Pacific neighbors, including some of the region’s poorest nations, such as Myanmar and Laos. Asia-Pacific manufacturing purchasing manager indices improved as Q1 ended, with China’s official PMI advancing 0.2 points to 51.8 in March for its best reading since April 2012. Japanese and Indian factory activity also accelerated in March, with India’s PMI hitting a 5-month high.13,14

WORLD MARKETS
As of March 31, the five best YTD performers among consequential global stock indices were Argentina’s MERVAL at +19.8%, Spain’s IBEX 35 at +11.9%, India’s Sensex at +11.2%, the MSCI Emerging Markets at +11.1%, and Singapore’s Straits Times at +10.2%. There were other big quarterly gains: 7.9% for Brazil’s Bovespa, 7.2% for Germany’s DAX, 6.5% for Italy’s FTSE MIB, 6.4% for the Euro Stoxx 50, 6.3% for the Global Dow, 9.6% for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and 6.6% for South Korea’s Kospi.15,16

In fact, it is hard to find a marquee stock index that retreated in Q1. Scrutiny reveals two: Russia’s RTS slipped 3.3%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.1%. To round things out, China’s Shanghai Composite gained 3.8% in Q1; the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100, 2.5%; and the MSCI World, 5.9%.15,16

COMMODITIES MARKETS
For metals investors, the first quarter brought much to cheer about. Investors in soft commodities had less to celebrate.

Palladium had a great Q1, rising 17.46%; aluminum was not far behind at 14.87%. COMEX silver ended the quarter at $18.28, gaining 14.50%. COMEX gold futures advanced 8.64% to settle at $1,247.40. Lastly, copper gained 5.84%, and platinum, 5.21%. Cotton led the way in ag futures with a 9.46% Q1 improvement; rice was next with a gain of 5.77%. CBOT wheat futures rose 4.53%, while corn futures added 3.48%.17,18

The quarter also saw some double-digit drops. Orange juice futures stumbled 20.75%; natural gas, 14.85%; and sugar, 14.10%. Other setbacks occurred for heating oil (8.89%), soybean oil (7.67%), WTI crude (5.81%), soybeans (5.07%), tin (4.56%), oats (1.86%), cocoa (1.46%), and nickel (1.39%). Oil finished the quarter at a NYMEX price of $50.85.17,18

REAL ESTATE
Q: Did mortgage rates ascend or descend in the first quarter? A: They descended. On December 29, the average interest rate on a conventional home loan was 4.32%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. By the March 30 PMMS, it was just 4.14%. Similar declines were seen for the average rate on the refinancer’s favorite, the 15-year FRM (3.55% to 3.39%), and the average rate on the 5/1-year ARM (3.30% to 3.18%).19,20

Census Bureau data showed new home sales rising 5.3% in January and another 6.1% in February. Resales wavered, increasing 3.3% for January and decreasing 3.7% the next month, according to the National Association of Realtors.3

Regarding the sales numbers that matter most (the annualized ones), existing home sales were up 5.4% in the year ending in February; new home sales, 12.8%. In the second month of 2017, the median price for an existing home was up 7.7% from a year ago at $228,400. The median new home price was up at $329,900 as of December, but it had fallen to $296,200 by February.21,22

What did other key real estate indicators do in the quarter? Housing starts and building permits went in opposite directions. Starts fell 1.9% in January, then rose 3.0% a month later; permits advanced 4.6% for January, but retreated 6.2% in February. NAR’s pending home sales index rose 5.5% to 112.3 in February after slipping 2.8% in January. Finally, January’s 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price index arrived in late March, revealing an 0.2% monthly improvement and a 5.7% annualized advance.3

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
On March 31, the key U.S. equity indices settled at these levels: Dow, 20,663.22; Nasdaq, 5,911.74; S&P 500, 2,362.72; Russell 2000, 1,385.92. The Russell did not quite gain as much as the big three in Q1 – it was up 2.12% YTD when March concluded. The CBOE VIX? It finished Q1 down 11.89% YTD – in fact, it was the worst performer among significant indices. The PHLX Housing Index was the quarter’s best performer, gaining 11.96%; the Nasdaq 100 was a close second, advancing 11.77%.2

Some truly remarkable things happened in Q1. The Dow closed at a record high for 12 straight trading days – a feat that last occurred in 1987. The blue chips also went on an 8-session losing streak for the first time since 2011. As the table below shows, the Nasdaq gained more in three months than it did during all of 2016.1

% CHANGE Q1 CHG 2016 1-YR CHG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +4.56 +13.42 +16.84 +6.73
NASDAQ +9.82 +7.50 +21.39 +14.41
S&P 500 +5.53 +9.54 +14.71 +6.63
REAL YIELD 3/31 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.43% 0.16% -0.09% 2.25%

Sources: barchart.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 3/31/172,23,24,25
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

With this great quarter now history, investors wonder what to expect out of Q2. A bullish outlook still predominates on Wall Street; though, questions linger. Is the market overbought, with a correction ahead? Is the market at a top? How much of a lift can stocks get from this next earnings season? Unless yearly earnings growth is dramatic, perhaps only a minor one. The stock market has once again outperformed the economy, but that has not troubled Wall Street to significant degree. This old bull market has already surpassed analyst projections – in March, Fortune reported that the consensus forecast for 2017 had improved to a yearly gain of somewhere between 4-10%. Could the bulls run all through this next quarter and, perhaps, for several more to come? As CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall recently commented, “Bull markets don’t die of old age, they die of fright. And what they are most afraid of is recession.” With no hint of recession on the near-term horizon, the upward stock market trend may continue through spring.26

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GREG OLIVER
093743274937[0493709[17309[78`0[23

Citations.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/markets-were-full-of-green-in-the-first-quarter-with-a-few-dashes-of-red-2017-03-31 [3/31/17]
2 – barchart.com/stocks/indices#/viewName=performance [3/31/17]
3 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [3/31/17]
4 – tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence [4/2/17]
5 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/about/MediaRoom/newsreleasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=30697 [4/3/17]
6 – instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [3/3/17]
7 – arkansasonline.com/news/2017/apr/01/u-s-consumer-spending-up-0-1-20170401/ [4/1/17]
8 – equities.com/news/a-strong-jobs-report-and-a-growing-divergence-between-jobs-and-employment [3/10/17]
9 – marketwatch.com/story/fed-raises-interest-rates-by-a-quarter-point-sees-two-move-moves-this-year-2017-03-15 [3/15/17]
10 – thehill.com/policy/finance/325703-week-ahead-gop-digs-into-dodd-frank-reform-senate-panel-to-vote-on-trump-labor [3/27/17]
11 – usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/03/29/britain-invokes-article-50-4-things-know-brexit/99769996/ [3/29/17]
12 – ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ [4/3/17]
13 – seattletimes.com/business/asia-economies-hold-trade-pact-talks-after-trump-dumps-tpp/ [2/26/17]
14 – reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-idUSKBN1750H4 [3/31/17]
15 – online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-intlstkidx.html [3/31/17]
16 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [3/31/17]
17 – seekingalpha.com/article/4059685-commodities-first-quarter-overview-outlook-q2 [4/3/17]
18 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [3/31/17]
19 – freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html [4/3/17]
20 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html?year=2016 [12/29/16]
21 – inman.com/2017/03/22/existing-home-sales-backtrack-in-february-after-january-high/ [3/22/17]
22 – constructiondive.com/news/new-home-sales-hit-7-month-high-in-february/438768/ [3/23/17]
23 – barchart.com/stocks/indices.php?view=performance [12/30/16]
24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F31%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]
24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F31%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]
24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F31%2F16&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]
24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F30%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]
24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F30%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]
24 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F30%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/31/17]
25 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/3/17]
26 – fortune.com/2017/03/09/stock-market-bull-market-longest/ [3/9/17]

Why Retirees Need Good Credit Scores

Why Retirees Need Good Credit Scores
Careers & businesses end, but the need to borrow remains.

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BY GREG OLIVER

We spend much of our adult lives working, borrowing, and buying. A good credit score is our ally along the way. It retains its importance when we retire.

Retirees should do everything they can to maintain their credit rating. A FICO score of 700 or higher is useful whether an individual works or not.

For example, some retirees will decide to refinance their home loans. A recently published study from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College noted that in 2013, 50% of homeowners older than 55 carried some form of housing debt. In 2017, it is probable that picture is unchanged. Arranging a lower interest rate on any remaining mortgage payments could bring income-challenged retirees more money each month. A strong FICO score will help them do that; a substandard one will not.1

Most retirees will want to buy a car at some point. Perhaps buying a recreational vehicle is on their to-do list. Very few car, truck, or RV purchases are all cash. A good credit score can help a retiree line up an auto loan with lower interest payments.

Insurance companies also study retiree credit habits. Since the early 1990s, credit-based insurance scores have been fundamental to underwriting. Used in all but a few states, they play a major role in determining car insurance and homeowner insurance premiums.2

The Fair Isaac Co. (FICO) generates credit-based insurance scores, which are variants of standard credit scores. Job and income data do not matter in a credit-based insurance score. Instead, insurers add up factors from a person’s credit history to project the likelihood of that person having an insurance loss. When a retiree consistently makes bill and loan payments on time, that helps her or his credit-based insurance score. The score is hurt when bill or loan payments are missed or delinquent or when debt levels become excessive.2,3

A strong credit rating can come in handy in other financial situations. It can help a retiree qualify for another credit card, should the need arise. If a senior wants to buy a smaller home (or move into an assisted living facility), a credit score may be a make-or-break factor. If a senior co-signs a loan for children or grandchildren, a credit rating will matter.

How can retirees boost their credit scores? Some obvious methods come to mind as well as less obvious ones. Besides paying bills on time and keeping credit card balances low, wiping out small debts can help lower a retiree’s credit utilization ratio. Asking a card issuer to raise a debt limit on a card can have the same effect, provided the monthly balance stays low and is paid off routinely.4

Too few retirees review their credit reports, and about 20% of individual credit reports have errors. More retirees ought to ask the three big credit bureaus – Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian – for a free copy of their credit report. Every 12 months, they are entitled to one.4

Credit cards held for decades should be kept active, especially if they have good payment histories. The same goes for high-limit cards. Closing these accounts out can do more harm than good to a credit rating.

Remember that good credit counts at any age. TransUnion recently surveyed baby boomers and discovered that nearly half thought their credit scores would become less important after they turned 70. As you can see by the above examples, that is not true. A high credit score can help you buy and borrow long after your working days are done.5

GREG OLIVER
-9249`2384=9`2349=`23849`23]948]23-4’

Citations.
1 – nytimes.com/2016/11/22/health/new-old-age-mortgage-debt.html [11/22/16]
2 – naic.org/cipr_topics/topic_credit_based_insurance_score.htm [12/30/16]
3 – kiplinger.com/article/credit/T017-C000-S015-why-your-credit-score-matters-in-retirement.html [2/9/17]
4 – fool.com/retirement/general/2016/05/13/5-ways-to-boost-your-credit-score-in-retirement.aspx [5/13/16]
5 – kiplinger.com/article/credit/T017-C000-S002-4-reasons-for-retirees-to-maintain-strong-credit.html [7/16]

Insurance and Investments

UPDATE : Insurance and Investments
A good financial strategy is not just about “making money;” it is also about protection.

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BY GREG OLIVER

Some people mistake investing for financial planning. Their “financial strategy” is an investing strategy, in which they chase the return and focus on the yield of their portfolio. As they do so, they miss the big picture.

Investing represents but one facet of long-term financial planning. Trying to build wealth is one thing; trying to protect it is another. An effort must be made to manage risk.

Insurance can play a central role in wealth protection. That role is underappreciated – partly because some of the greatest risks to wealth go unnoticed in daily life. Five days a week, investors notice what happens on Wall Street; the market is constantly “top of mind.” What about those “back of mind” things investors may not readily acknowledge?

What if an individual suddenly cannot work? Without disability insurance, a seriously injured or ill person out of the workforce may have to dip into savings to replace income – i.e., reduce his or her net worth. As the Council for Disability Awareness notes, the average length of a long-term disability claim is nearly three years. Workers’ compensation insurance will only pay out if a disability directly relates to an incident that occurs at work, and most long-term disabilities are not workplace related. Disability insurance can commonly replace 40-70% of an individual’s income. Minus disability coverage, imagine the financial impact of going, for instance, three years without work and what that could do to a person’s net worth and retirement savings.1

What if an individual suddenly dies? If a household relies on that person’s income, how does it cope financially with that income abruptly disappearing? Does it spend down its savings or its invested assets? In such a crisis, life insurance can offer relief. The payout from a policy with a six-figure benefit can provide the equivalent of years of income. Optionally, that payout can be invested. Life insurance proceeds are usually exempt from income tax; although any interest received is taxable.2

Most people want a say in what happens to their wealth after they die. Again, insurance can play a role. At a basic level, those with larger estates may use life insurance to address potentially large liabilities, such as business loans, mortgage payments, and estate taxes. An ILIT may also shield the cash value of a life insurance policy from “predators and creditors.” Beyond that, a sizable life insurance policy can be creatively incorporated into an irrevocable life insurance trust (ILIT), through which an individual can plan to exclude life insurance proceeds from his or her taxable estate.3

Yes, the estate tax exemption is high right now: $5.49 million. Even so, if a person dies in 2017 while owning a $5 million life insurance policy and a $500,000 home, his or her estate would be taxed. An ILIT would be a useful estate-planning tool in such a circumstance.3

Why do people underinsure themselves as they strive to build wealth? Partly, it is because death and disability are uncomfortable conversation topics. Many people neglect estate planning due to this same discomfort and because they lack knowledge of just how insurance can be used to promote wealth preservation.

The bottom line? Insurance is a vital, necessary aspect of a long-term financial plan. Insurance may not be as exciting to the average person as investments, but it can certainly help a household maintain some financial equilibrium in a crisis, and it also can become a crucial part of estate planning.

GREG OLIVER
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Citations.
1 - nerdwallet.com/blog/insurance/disability-insurance-explained/ [6/27/16]
2 – tinyurl.com/knroq9u [3/27/17]
3 – thebalance.com/irrevocable-life-insurance-trust-ilit-estate-planning-3505379 [3/21/17]

GREG OLIVER/// 9238946`238946`238946p-92386-9847`-98237489

Have a Plan, Not Just a Stock Portfolio

Design 23

Have a Plan, Not Just a Stock Portfolio
Diversification still matters. One day, this bull market will end.

BY GREG OLIVER

In the first quarter of 2017, the bull market seemed unstoppable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared past 20,000 and closed at all-time highs on 12 consecutive trading days. The Nasdaq Composite gained almost 10% in three months.1

An eight-year-old bull market is rare. This current bull is the second longest since the end of World War II; only the 1990-2000 bull run surpasses it. Since 1945, the average bull market has lasted 57 months.2

Everyone knows this bull market will someday end – but who wants to acknowledge that fact when equities have performed so well?

Overly exuberant investors might want to pay attention to the words of Sam Stovall, a longtime, bullish investment strategist and market analyst. Stovall, who used to work for Standard & Poor’s and now works for CFRA, has seen bull and bear markets come and go. As he recently noted to Fortune, epic bull markets usually end “with a bang and not a whimper. Like an incandescent light bulb, they tend to glow brightest just before they go out.”2

History is riddled with examples. Think of the dot-com bust of 2000, the credit crisis of 2008, and the skyrocketing inflation of 1974. These developments wiped out bull markets; this bull market could potentially end as dramatically as those three did.3

A 20% correction would take the Dow down into the 16,000s. Emotionally, that would feel like a much more significant market drop – after all, the last time the blue chips fell 4,000 points was during the 2007-09 bear market.4

Investors must prepare for the worst, even as they celebrate the best. A stock portfolio is not a retirement plan. A diversified investment mix of equity and fixed-income vehicles, augmented by a strong cash position, is wise in any market climate. Those entering retirement should have realistic assessments of the annual income they can withdraw from their savings and the potential returns from their invested assets.

Now is not the time to be greedy. With the markets near historic peaks, diversification still matters, and it can potentially provide a degree of financial insulation when stocks fall. Many investors are tempted to chase the return right now, but their real mission should be chasing their retirement objectives in line with the strategy defined in their retirement plans. In a sense, this record-setting bull market amounts to a distraction – a distraction worth celebrating, but a distraction, nonetheless.

GREG OLIVER
Citations.
1 – money.cnn.com/2017/03/31/investing/trump-rally-first-quarter-wall-street/index.html [3/31/17]
2 – fortune.com/2017/03/09/stock-market-bull-market-longest/ [3/9/17]
3 – kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C008-S002-5-reasons-bull-markets-end.html [4/3/14]
4 – thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535 [4/3/17]

Teacher Appreciation Week

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The first full week in May is Teacher Appreciation Week – a time when parents, students, and communities thank classroom teachers for their dedication and affirm the difference they make.

I, too, recognize all the great work you do in every week of the school year. You and your colleagues are experts – you share your knowledge in just the right way, with devotion and innovation that truly makes a positive impact on your students. What you do in the classroom helps to improve the world.

My appreciation of the role you play is never-ending.

Thank you,
GREG OLIVER
greg@go2ofs.com